The most notable line is that the draft urges signatories to come forward by the end of 2022 with new targets for slashing emissions over the next decade, which scientists say is crucial if the world wants to have any chance of keeping warming below 2 degrees and closer to 1.5.
David Waskow, director of the International Climate Initiative with the World Resources Institute, welcomed the 2022 target as progress.
“So this is crucial language because it does set the timeframe around when countries need to come forward with strengthened targets in order to align with Paris,” he said. He was referring to the 2015 Paris Agreement, which set a global warming limit of 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, with a preference for 1.5 degrees. Although that was agreed six years ago, many parties’ emissions plans do not align with that goal.
He warned that there were “certainly parties who have been pushing back on that,” naming Saudi Arabia and Russian. CNN had reached out to those countries on the same issue on Tuesday and is seeking new comment.
China has publicly said several times it would oppose a shift from 2 degrees to 1.5.
Typically draft COP agreements are watered down in the final text, but there is also a chance that some elements could be strengthened.
The agreement includes soft language like “urges” and “recognizes” around emissions cuts, so does not have the same force of a treaty like the Paris Agreement, but has some legal basis.
But on the whole, the language builds on the Paris Agreement and includes lines on the importance of speeding up the phase-out of coal and other fossil fuels, although no specific dates are mentioned.
WRI’s director of climate negotiations, Yamide Dagnet, said it was climate-vulnerable countries that pushed for the stronger language, but what they wanted was for the agreement to set stronger obligations for particular nations. They are also seeing the 2022 goal as difficult for them to achieve without a bigger boost in funding.
“For them, it’s going to be very difficult … to come back home and to say, after all of your efforts … you have to do another adjustment effort within a year,” she said.
There is an extensive section on the issue of climate finance, which is the key sticking point in talks. A dynamic has emerged at the negotiations where developing nations are demanding that rich nations honor a pledge they made more than a decade ago to transfer $100 billion a year to the Global South by 2020, and start paying for “loss and damage,” which means holding them financial liable for the impacts on their countries, acknowledging rich nations’ historic role in the climate crisis.
The draft agreement notes that the $100 billion goal will likely be met by 2023, three years later than promised, although it includes several points to encourage a faster mobilization of money. The language is fairly weak in that it doesn’t set earlier targets to come up with the funding.
“On one side of the scales, it advances a detailed process for accelerating climate mitigation goals, but, on the other side of the scales, on finance and loss and damage, it is fuzzy and vague,” said Mohamed Adow, director of climate think tank Power Shift Africa.
“The missed deadline for the $100 billion promise doesn’t get acknowledged — and this is a key ask from vulnerable countries.”
Tracy Carty, Oxfam’s head of delegation at COP26, said: “Support for loss and damage cannot be left to random acts of charity. We need a robust finance system in place and new sources of support for countries suffering from loss and damage that goes beyond humanitarian aid. There are four days left and there’s everything to play for to ensure Glasgow is remembered for the right reasons.”
What the agreement says on 1.5 degrees
On 1.5 degrees, the document says it “recognizes that the impacts of climate change will be much lower at the temperature increase of 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C and resolves to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, recognizing that this requires meaningful and effective action by all Parties in this critical decade on the basis of the best available scientific knowledge.”
It “also recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C by 2100 requires rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, including reducing global carbon dioxide emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 relative to the 2010 level and to net zero around mid-century.”